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Can Affirm Beat Q1 Earnings on Higher GMV and Active Consumers?
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Key Takeaways
AFRM's fiscal Q1 earnings are expected to jump 52.2% year over year, with revenues projected to grow 30.3%.
AFRM's GMV is projected to grow 30.1%, while active consumers and transactions per user are set to rise.
Affirm's card network revenues are expected to grow 26.4%, aided by increased usage of its virtual cards.
Leading buy now, pay later (BNPL) solution provider Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM - Free Report) is set to report its first-quarter fiscal 2027 results on Nov. 5, 2026, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s bottom line is currently pegged at earnings of 35 cents per share on revenues of $1.22 billion.
The fiscal first-quarter earnings estimate has witnessed one upward revision over the past 60 days against one movement in the opposite direction. The bottom-line projection indicates a year-over-year jump of 52.2%. Also, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests year-over-year growth of 30.3%.
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For full-year fiscal 2027, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Affirm’s revenues is pegged at $5.52 billion, implying a rise of 29.7% year over year. However, the consensus mark for the current fiscal year’s EPS is pegged at $1.89, implying a 65.8% decline from a year ago, due to the nonrecurrence of a substantial one-time tax benefit recognized in fiscal 2026, rather than weakening underlying business fundamentals.
Affirm beat the consensus estimate for earnings in each of the last four quarters, with the average surprise being 379.4%.
Our proven model predicts a likely earnings beat for the company this time around as well. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That’s precisely the case here.
AFRM currently has an Earnings ESP of +14.49% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Merchant network revenues are likely to have benefited from an expanding Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV). The company’s ability to forge partnerships with businesses is expected to have boosted its active merchant count in the fiscal first quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for merchant network revenues is pegged at $318.3 million, indicating a 26.8% rise from the prior-year quarter’s figure.
The consensus mark for fiscal first-quarter GMV implies 30.1% growth from the prior-year quarter’s number. Management anticipates the metric to be in the range of $13.7-$14 billion. For full-year fiscal 2027, it expects GMV to be more than $64 billion.
Growing consumer engagement and an expanding merchant network are likely to have driven transaction volumes on Affirm’s platform. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for active consumers indicates 19.8% year-over-year growth. The consensus mark for transactions per active consumer suggests a 13.1% rise from the year-ago period.
An increase in the usage of Affirm’s virtual cards is expected to have driven card network revenues. The consensus mark for card network revenues indicates a 26.4% improvement from the year-ago quarter’s number. Meanwhile, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for interest income is pegged at $603.3 million, which implies a 32.9% year-over-year rise.
The consensus mark for servicing income is pegged at $55.1 million, which indicates a 38.8% jump from the year-ago quarter. However, elevated transaction costs are likely to have exerted pressure on profitability. Nevertheless, management expects the adjusted operating margin to remain within the 28-30% range.
How Did Other Payments Companies Perform?
Here are some companies in the broader payments space that have already reported earnings for the September quarter: Synchrony Financial (SYF - Free Report) , American Express Company (AXP - Free Report) and Visa Inc. (V - Free Report) .
Synchrony Financial reported third-quarter 2026 adjusted EPS of $2.68, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 8.1%. However, the bottom line decreased 6.3% year over year. SYF’s earnings were aided by strong purchase volume and improved credit performance, partly offset by higher operating expenses and an increase in the provision for credit losses.
American Express reported third-quarter 2026 adjusted EPS of $4.68, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.7% and advanced 13% year over year. AXP’s quarterly earnings were driven by increased Card Member spending, higher net interest income and improved card fee growth. However, the upside was partly offset by elevated operating expenses.
Visa delivered fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings of $3.48 per share, which increased 17% year over year and beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.5%. Higher payment volumes, robust cross-border activity and increased transaction processing aided Visa’s results. However, the upside was partly offset by increased expenses and client incentives.
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Can Affirm Beat Q1 Earnings on Higher GMV and Active Consumers?
Key Takeaways
Leading buy now, pay later (BNPL) solution provider Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM - Free Report) is set to report its first-quarter fiscal 2027 results on Nov. 5, 2026, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s bottom line is currently pegged at earnings of 35 cents per share on revenues of $1.22 billion.
The fiscal first-quarter earnings estimate has witnessed one upward revision over the past 60 days against one movement in the opposite direction. The bottom-line projection indicates a year-over-year jump of 52.2%. Also, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests year-over-year growth of 30.3%.
For full-year fiscal 2027, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Affirm’s revenues is pegged at $5.52 billion, implying a rise of 29.7% year over year. However, the consensus mark for the current fiscal year’s EPS is pegged at $1.89, implying a 65.8% decline from a year ago, due to the nonrecurrence of a substantial one-time tax benefit recognized in fiscal 2026, rather than weakening underlying business fundamentals.
Affirm beat the consensus estimate for earnings in each of the last four quarters, with the average surprise being 379.4%.
Affirm Price and EPS Surprise
Affirm Holdings, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Affirm Holdings, Inc. Quote
Affirm’s Q1 Earnings Whispers
Our proven model predicts a likely earnings beat for the company this time around as well. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That’s precisely the case here.
AFRM currently has an Earnings ESP of +14.49% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Q1 Factors to Note for Affirm
Merchant network revenues are likely to have benefited from an expanding Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV). The company’s ability to forge partnerships with businesses is expected to have boosted its active merchant count in the fiscal first quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for merchant network revenues is pegged at $318.3 million, indicating a 26.8% rise from the prior-year quarter’s figure.
The consensus mark for fiscal first-quarter GMV implies 30.1% growth from the prior-year quarter’s number. Management anticipates the metric to be in the range of $13.7-$14 billion. For full-year fiscal 2027, it expects GMV to be more than $64 billion.
Growing consumer engagement and an expanding merchant network are likely to have driven transaction volumes on Affirm’s platform. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for active consumers indicates 19.8% year-over-year growth. The consensus mark for transactions per active consumer suggests a 13.1% rise from the year-ago period.
An increase in the usage of Affirm’s virtual cards is expected to have driven card network revenues. The consensus mark for card network revenues indicates a 26.4% improvement from the year-ago quarter’s number. Meanwhile, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for interest income is pegged at $603.3 million, which implies a 32.9% year-over-year rise.
The consensus mark for servicing income is pegged at $55.1 million, which indicates a 38.8% jump from the year-ago quarter. However, elevated transaction costs are likely to have exerted pressure on profitability. Nevertheless, management expects the adjusted operating margin to remain within the 28-30% range.
How Did Other Payments Companies Perform?
Here are some companies in the broader payments space that have already reported earnings for the September quarter: Synchrony Financial (SYF - Free Report) , American Express Company (AXP - Free Report) and Visa Inc. (V - Free Report) .
Synchrony Financial reported third-quarter 2026 adjusted EPS of $2.68, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 8.1%. However, the bottom line decreased 6.3% year over year. SYF’s earnings were aided by strong purchase volume and improved credit performance, partly offset by higher operating expenses and an increase in the provision for credit losses.
American Express reported third-quarter 2026 adjusted EPS of $4.68, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.7% and advanced 13% year over year. AXP’s quarterly earnings were driven by increased Card Member spending, higher net interest income and improved card fee growth. However, the upside was partly offset by elevated operating expenses.
Visa delivered fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings of $3.48 per share, which increased 17% year over year and beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.5%. Higher payment volumes, robust cross-border activity and increased transaction processing aided Visa’s results. However, the upside was partly offset by increased expenses and client incentives.